{"product_id":"153670497_product","title":"Dan Gardner - Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction - P","description":"New Store Stock\u003cbr\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAbout this Item\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eThe item is a book Paperback\u003cbr\u003eThe Author Name is Dan Gardner\u003cbr\u003eThe Title is Superforecasting : The Art and Science of Prediction\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eCondition New\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eOther Comments\u003cbr\u003eNew Store Stock\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eProduct Description -\u003cbr\u003eNEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLERWINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel KahnemanWhat if we could improve our ability to predict the future?Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out.\r\n\r\n The problem is, we're not very good at it.   In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight.\r\n\r\n These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group.\r\n\r\n They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.   'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring.\r\n\r\n In other words, to everyone.' Economist'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . .\r\n\r\n Highly recommended.' Independent'The best thing I have read on predictions . . .\r\n\r\n Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times\u003cbr\u003e\u003cp\u003eWhen possible we will add details of the items we are selling to help buyers know what is included in the item for sale. The details are provided automatically from our central master database and can sometimes be wrong.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eBooks are released in many editions and variations, such as standard edition, re-issue, not for sale, promotional, special edition, limited edition, and many other editions and versions.  The Book you receive could be any of these editions or variations. If you are looking for a specific edition or version please contact us to verify what we are selling.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGift Ideas\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\nThis is a great gift idea.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e \u003c\/p\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eHours of Service\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\nWe have many warehouses, some of the warehouses process orders seven days a week, but the Administration Support Staff are located at a head office location, outside of the warehouses, and typically work only Monday to Friday.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cbr\u003eLocation ID 245z\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003eiHaveit SKU ID 174070632\u003cbr\u003e\u003cbr\u003e","brand":"Cornerstone","offers":[{"title":"Default Title \/ unisex","offer_id":47179547377908,"sku":"174070632","price":10.99,"currency_code":"GBP","in_stock":true}],"url":"https:\/\/ihaveitmarketplace.com\/products\/153670497_product","provider":"iHaveit","version":"1.0","type":"link"}